Framework for inferring empirical causal graphs from binary data to support multidimensional poverty analysis

Abstract

Poverty is one of the fundamental issues that mankind faces. Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is deployed for measuring poverty issues in a population beyond monetary. However, MPI cannot provide information regarding associations and causal relations among poverty factors. Does education cause income inequality in a specific region? Is lacking education a cause of health issues? By not knowing causal relations, policy maker cannot pinpoint root causes of poverty issues of a specific population, which might not be the same across different population. Additionally, MPI requires binary data, which cannot be analyzed by most of causal inference frameworks. In this work, we proposed an exploratory-data-analysis framework for finding possible causal relations with confidence intervals among binary data. The proposed framework provides not only how severe the issue of poverty is, but it also provides the causal relations among poverty factors. Moreover, knowing a confidence interval of degree of causal direction lets us know how strong a causal relation is.