Adaptive Resilience Curve: Examining Adaptability for Resilient Energy Infrastructure

Abstract

One key aspect of the Global Goal on Adaptation is to examine transformational adaptation at different scales and sectors. While there are several adaptation assessment frameworks in the energy sector, there is still room for further development to properly capture and quantify the adaptability of energy infrastructure against climate change. Therefore, this study aims to define a definition for the adaptability of resilient energy infrastructure and develop the adaptive resilience curve to quantify it. The study hypothesized and confirmed definition boundaries for the resilience, adaptation, and adaptability of resilient energy infrastructure and an adaptive resilience curve. Definitions of resilience and adaptation are often interchangeably used, yet differences were found. Common keywords extracted from definitions of resilience and adaptation were utilized to define the adaptability of resilient energy infrastructure. The adaptive resilience curve was formulated, borrowing attributes from concepts contributing to adaptability, including global catastrophic risk, beyond design basis accident, and foresight. The definition for the adaptability of resilient energy infrastructure sets a common ground for the understanding of the concept, on which the adaptive resilience curve is developed to facilitate its visualization and quantification. The adaptive resilience curve can capture temporal change in the adaptability of resilient energy infrastructure under multiple scenarios using multiple figures-of-merit. © 2025 by the authors.